
Is the Bond Market Signaling a Recession?
Our View (the Short Story) Although the yield curve is near zero and could invert, we are not concerned about a recession in the near term. Even if the yield curve inverted, history shows that a recession usually does not occur for 6-24 months. We continue to have a positive view of the stock market. What's the Issue? In recent weeks, the media has been buzzing with stories about the "flattening" of the yield curve. Why? Because an inverted yield curve historically has led to