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Is the Bond Market Signaling a Recession?

Our View (the Short Story) Although the yield curve is near zero and could invert, we are not concerned about a recession in the near term. Even if the yield curve inverted, history shows that a recession usually does not occur for 6-24 months. We continue to have a positive view of the stock market. What's the Issue? In recent weeks, the media has been buzzing with stories about the "flattening" of the yield curve. Why? Because an inverted yield curve historically has led to recessions, and recessions generally lead to major declines in the stock market. What is an Inverted Yield Curve? Yield curves are visual representations of interest rates at various points in time. Ordinarily, long-ter

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Deerfield, Il 60015

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Disciplined Investment Management is a registered investment adviser in the State of Washington.  The adviser may not transact business in states where it is not appropriately registered, excluded or exempted from registration.  Individualized responses to persons that involve either the effecting of transactions in securities, or the rendering of personalized investment advice for compensation, will not be made without registration or exemption.”